We have to start re-shaping the CFB narrative, folks.

Ross Dellenger got the green light to go public with the rumblings that many people have heard over the course of the last year. The College Football Playoff is expanding again and the Big Ten and SEC are flexing their muscles again. No, none of what Dellenger wrote is official, but it's basically official. These rumors have been around for a while and Dellenger is the canary flying into the mine to see if the college football world is toxic enough to kill the idea.

But, it won't be. This expansion will happen. The Big Ten and SEC will get theirs. The Big 12 and ACC will get less. The rest of the world will get even less than that. And Notre Dame will have some nice little carve out for themselves. It's going to happen and there isn't a thing that we can do about it.

There are lots of things to be said about this new proposed (but unofficially official) format, but there is one prevailing thing that we have to talk about first - The Narrative.

The Narrative

As soon as this tweet surfaced, Big 12 and ACC accounts ran as fast as they could to claim foul, and that was probably the right thing to do.

This format clearly puts the Big Ten and the SEC in a different tier. It isn't fair, but college football has never been fair. It's a big win for the Big Ten and the SEC. National pundits (the same ones who have been carrying the SEC and Big Ten water all season long) immediately jumped onto the narrative that this is right and good because the Big 12 and ACC don't stand a chance at ever winning a national championship again. Fans argued. Pundits doubled down. You know the routine.

But when it comes The Narrative, there are some teams that are just quietly sitting in the corner and hoping everyone forgets that they exist. I'm talking about the Minnesotas of the world. And the Arkansas of the world. And the Rutgers and the Vanderbilts and the Iowas of the world.

You see, the narrative is that this format is bad for the Big 12 and ACC but good for the Big Ten and SEC. That's true, technically, but it won't be true over time. You see, even within the two conferences at the top, there are tiers. The teams in the bottom of the Big Ten tier are a lot closer to the Big 12 and ACC than they are to the top tier of the Big Ten.

It's not the conferences that are flexing muscles and destroying the sport, it's the collective power of about 20 schools, and they are using the conference commissioners as their proxy.

Oregon and Washington get half the money the rest of the Big Ten does. That was the price they were willing to pay in order to gain admission into the conference. They get to play with the Big Ten logo on their chests, but their move spelled out what the future will look like. Unequal revenue sharing is coming for those conferences. Purdue might have 'access' but the door will be slammed in their face over the course of the next several years.

The Narrative is that the Big Ten and SEC are the bad guys. The Narrative should be that the collective bodies of Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and USC are the bad guys. Those schools won't continue to subsidize everyone. They are already cutting out the Big 12 and ACC. Next, they will cut out some of their own.

This new era of college athletics isn't about the conferences. It isn't about the Big 12 vs. Big Ten or ACC vs. SEC. It's about David vs. Goliath. It's about the 1% on Wall Street and the 99% picketing on the streets. It's about the big dogs and everyone else.

There are some obvious and easy cuts coming in the next round of media rights negotiations. Schools like Rutgers, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and Mississippi State aren't going to get the same checks that Ohio State and Georgia do. The big dogs won't kick them out of their conferences, but they will handcuff them to the point that they can't financially compete with anyone else and, effectively, be non-factors within the conference. Some of those teams are good teams and have been competitive lately, but they aren't the big dogs. They are like the next people in line for a lifeboat when the last lifeboat drifted away from the Titanic. They are hopeful that they can squeeze on, but their fate will be the same as the Big 12 and ACC in the boiler room.

Schools like Wisconsin, Nebraska, South Carolina, Auburn, and Ole Miss should also be a little weary. Their fate will be determined entirely by how much room Georgia and Texas think they need for manspreading on the lifeboat.

The Big Ten isn't winning - Ohio State and Michigan are.

The SEC isn't winning - Texas and Alabama are.

When we make this about conferences, we give the big schools exactly what they are looking for - plausible deniability. They can hide behind the actions of their conference commissioners while pulling the puppet strings every step of the way. The big-name schools are pulling the strings and we have got to remember that. They want a world with 15-20 contenders every year but they know they need other people to help make it happen so they are doing things slowly and methodically. But make no mistake about it, they are going to try to have their cake and eat it too. So far, they're succeeding.

The Silver Lining

Two auto-bids are better than one. Some Big 12 and ACC fans have been quick to say that there should be no auto-bids and the top 14 or top 16 teams should just make it into the playoff no matter what conference they come from.

Um, guys? WE DON'T WANT THAT!

On December 8, 2024, these were your Top 16 schools.

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson

Big Ten - 4

SEC - 6

ACC - 3

Big 12 - 1

G5 - 1

Notre Dame - 1

Never mind that BYU had beaten the highest-ranked ACC team and finished with just two losses. Never mind that Clemson had three losses and their best win was over the same SMU team that BYU had also beaten. Never mind that South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Alabama also had three losses. Despite all of those things, two-loss BYU was still outside of the Top 16 and would have still been left out of a 16-team playoff with no auto-bids.

Folks, just because the liferaft doesn't have as many ores as the liferaft next to it, don't turn your nose up at the life raft in order to stay on the Titanic.

The Big 12 and ACC should ask for 4 auto-bids. When they get turned down, they should ask for 3 auto-bids. They should try to pull any leverage levers that they think they have in order to get the Big Ten and SEC to agree to those terms. If it happens, wonderful. If it doesn't, TAKE THE TWO BIDS AND LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY!

Sometimes the smartest choice on the football field is to settle for a field goal. You want a touchdown, but getting three on the board will move you further along than throwing a pick in the endzone on 4th and long. The Big 12 and ACC need to fight for as many bids as they can get on 1st-3rd downs, but if 4th down comes and two is what's on the table, settle for the points.

Closing Statement

College football is changing fast. There are 15-20 schools that are driving the ship. Those 15-20 schools don't care about any one of the other 120 schools that exist. But, at some point, 120 > 15-20. It's time to start recognizing who the real enemies and who the real friends are.