5 min read

Clemson and FSU.

Clemson and FSU.
Photo by Erin Doering / Unsplash

Yesterday, word started buzzing that Clemson and FSU were in talks with the Big 12, at least preliminarily, about joining the league when they exit the ACC. This wasn't some mhver3 speculation (aka pulling it out of his butt) it was from Ross Dellenger speaking with John Kurtz at media days:

If you paid attention much during the last cycle it became very clear that Dellenger is both very connected nationally and that conferences trust him to be a bit of a mouthpiece. And personally, I don't think this is a recent conversation - I believe it started last fall when the lawsuit was filed if not before to make sure they had options before they went nuclear on their current conference:

Now, this is high level and clearly this a backup plan if the Big 10 or SEC don't take them - but let's look at some reasons WHY this could happen:

GOR Timing

If ESPN exercising the ACC option, then the league is locked up until 2036. Terrible for the Tigers and the Noles to be stuck behind 3 other leagues in money for that long. And that is out of their control because ESPN is the one who holds the option. If they announce their intent to leave before then, then ESPN likely turns down the option and the ACC goes the way of the Pac and Big East.

Higher Floor

The Big 12 is lacking blue blood brands at the moment, but it is the most parity filled league in the country and has a very high floor. The drop off after the top 2-3 teams in the ACC is massive both in on field performance as well as brand recognition and fan support. Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Wake? Might as well be G5 if they didn't have a historical association. UNC outside of hoops is bleh. Virginia, GT and Duke only have grades. Miami is a shell of its former self. Hell, in 2019 the American finished higher than the ACC in Massey Composite Ranking which combines 100+ computer rankings!

More Money

ESPN extension aside, the Big 12 is set to get more money over the course of its current deal which expires in 2030 compared to what the ACC will get. Even if you view it as a lateral move in perception and quality, take the new job that gives you a raise and will throw you a bone.

What I Would Do

Here's what I would do if I was Brett Yormark:

Split Football from Olympic Sports

The Big 12 looked at pricing Gonzaga and UConn as non-football members last year. The valuation is there. Let them come in with that baseline gaurantee. Both could even take a ND type deal if they wanted to be a true "Independent" - but I don't think that's necessary.

Separate Football TV Deals to Avoid Unequal Distributions

By splitting their contracts out like this, you allow FSU and Clemson to go shop their own football TV deal. If they get massively more, good for them. By splitting this out you also change the power dynamic by having league decisions driven by the main core and not have a Texas/OU situation where they are saying what they need/want for a deal that affects everybody else.

Not everybody needs to get a raise by bringing them in - playing these two regularly will get a brand lift overall and kill the ACC. That's money enough - don't need to try to refigure out the entire TV deal. You will need expanded TV slots anyway - let them find them (and help of course) and go get the increased amount.

Call Pete Bevacqua

Get Pete on the phone and discuss the ND deal with the ACC. Give them aggressive terms on a similar deal to lure them away. If Clemson and FSU are in the bag, the Irish will listen.

Give Them an Out

Anytime there's a coaching hire, fans worry about the guy not being a lifer and leaving for a better job. If you find yourself in that position, that means your program is better than it was when you started.

The Big 12 could have its current 16 members + FSU, Clemson, ND until 2030 and then go back to 16 and be in the same spot they are now membership wise except:

  • Teams will have beaten them and raised their perception - half the league is new and if those members succeed then it looks better overall and they didn't get this chance with OU/UT leaving after year 1 for last year's group and no chance for the 4 corners.
  • The league will be seen as having a couple bell-cow programs for half a decade - this likely means additional playoff bids
  • It kills the ACC as the only threat to the 3rd best league
  • There's the chance they are happy and stay!

Let them out early if they want it. The separate TV deal for football helps do this and it makes you enticing right after they get out of a nasty breakup with the ACC.

BE THE SLOPPY REBOUND SOMETIMES IT WORKS OUT.

A Theorized Chain of Events

Okay, here's one way this could play out:

  1. ESPN turns down the option. They don't want to be tied to the ACC until 2036 while a lawsuit might let out the two biggest programs. They say they're committed to the league and will renegotiate a deal blah blah blah.
  2. FSU and Clemson are gone. Where they go is TBD, but if the Big Ten isn't willing to expand unless they get ND as part of it, then it's all on the SEC who may or may not want them. Sure they're great, but there's already so much at the top of that league, adding them really only facilitates getting to size for a complete breakaway. I don't think it's a slam dunk.
  3. Some schools say they're committed to the ACC the same way Utah and Colorado acted committed to the Pac along with the rest of that league. They will find themselves in the same spot that the 8 schools that left the Pac after USCLA announced their departure: trying to appear united for the sake of getting a deal done, but it's gonna be hard.
  4. A couple ACC schools make the jump - Colorado set off the rest of the four corners coming. If you want 4, take numbers 3 and 4 first to put pressure on 1 and 2 - if they don't budge then you can sit tight or take your backup plans 5 and 6. Schools here could be: Louisville, Miami, NC State, Pitt, Duke, VT.
  5. FSU and Clemson join the Big 12 on a sweetheart deal.
  6. ACC backfills - targets would be Memphis, USF, then a huge dropoff to schools like UTSA, Tulane, etc. The AAC is gutted by the 3 Big 12 schools leaving and SMU. That gives SMU some more regionality, but make things harder for Stanford and Cal to justify the travel.
  7. The Pac is revived from the MW - Stanford and Cal aren't traveling across the country to to play G5 teams. A new Pac looks like: Stanford, Cal, Wazzu, Oregon State, SDSU, Boise, CSU, Fresno State, and maybe SMU and UTSA depending on what the ACC does and what SMU wants to be aligned with.

Will this happen? No idea. Could it happen? Sure. Would this have been avoided enitrely if Larry Scott and George Kliavkoff weren't terrible at their jobs? Yes.