BYU Football circa 2025 is like one of those 3D pictures at a dentist's office
I was driving with my family in the car. My kids were arguing with each other about something innocuous when I heard one of them say, 'Hey! That was my idea!'
That's a phrase that everyone is familiar with. It's likely been a phrase that everyone reading this has used at some point in their lives. It's a natural feeling to get possessive about ideas and thoughts that come into our minds. When those ideas carried out by someone else, there is frequently a feeling of, 'Hey, I was going to do that!'
I don't believe that is how ideas work, though. I don't think a person can sit on the couch and think their way into a creative idea. Ideas don't belong to anybody. Ideas exist and have to be discovered by someone willing to bring them to life. They can't be owned. They aren't invented. Ideas are discovered.
Steve Jobs didn't create the idea of a handheld computer that doubles as a phone - literally thousands of people had thought about that idea before Jobs did. But when Jobs discovered the idea, he felt passionately enough about it that he latched onto the idea and executed the idea into existence.
Ideas exist independent of you and me. They exist on their own and they are waiting for someone to discover them and bring them to life.
I share this hippie way of thinking to provide some context for my thoughts on the upcoming BYU football season. I follow this same kind of approach when discussing BYU football. I am not naive enough to believe that the thoughts and opinions I share about BYU football are somehow my own. If I didn't share the thoughts that I share, surely someone else would find a way to get those thoughts into reality. I don't create any of the opinions shared, I simply identify trends or talking points and give them a platform to exist.
Historically speaking, when I try to discover BYU football ideas for newsletters, articles, or YouTube videos, I simply look at data, read pressers, or re-watch game film and let the take on the team jump out and speak for itself. I try my best to not have any preconceived opinions or notions of what it should look like and try to let the trends or the takes become clear.
It's like looking into one of those 3D paintings at the dentist's office. If you look at it long enough and stop trying to see what the picture is, the picture will jump out and grab you. Such is the case with BYU football, most of the time.
But, today is July 21 and I'm still standing like a doofus and staring at the picture waiting for something to jump out.
Maybe it's because of the Jake Retzlaff situation. Maybe it's because spring ball was overshadowed by basketball's NCAA Tournament run and subsequent next-level recruiting. Maybe it's because the psyche of the fanbase is that the season was primed for a playoff run and now it's not, so what's the point of playing?
I don't know what it is, but the ideas about the 2025 BYU football team just don't jump off the page.
Perhaps that is why the national consensus of this team is down. Talking heads think you should sell BYU this year because they lost a lot of production. The sportsbooks this bowl eligibility will be an accomplishment and have set the win total at 6.5. The analytics are down on BYU as well.
Despite everything that BYU did a year ago, there just isn't anything about this year's team that currently jumps out and grabs someone. In the absence of being grabbed, it seems most assume that the team will be bad.
Let's look at what people see - with numbers and as much objectivity as we possibly can muster. To do us, I'll use my trusty friends at Pro Football Focus for the data.
TOTAL REPS PLAYED IN 2024 - OFFENSE
Caleb Etienne - 867 - GONE
Weylin Lapuaho - 855 - BACK
Jake Retzlaff - 844 - GONE
Chase Roberts - 643 - BACK
Brayden Keim - 593 - GONE
Darius Lassiter - 592 - GONE
Austin Leausa - 577 - BACK
Connor Pay - 532 - GONE
Mata'ava Ta'ase - 477 - GONE
Bruce Mitchell - 472 - BACK
Keelan Marion - 457 - GONE
LJ Martin - 393 - BACK
Sonny Makasini - 305 - BACK
Jojo Phillips - 266 - BACK
Keanu Hill - 259 - GONE
Hinckley Ropati - 247 - BACK
Parker Kingston - 167 - BACK
Ethan Erickson - 145 - BACK
Isaiah Jatta - 144 - BACK
Kody Epps - 132 - GONE
Ray Paulo - 105 - GONE
Sione Moa - 102 - BACK
That's 22 offensive players who played 100+ snaps last season. Of those 22, 10 of them are no longer at BYU. Of the reps played by those 22 players, only 45.2% of them are coming back to BYU this season.
That's not great, Bob!
TOTAL REPS PLAYED IN 2024 - DEFENSE
Jakob Robinson - 785 - GONE
Jack Kelly - 728 - BACK
Marque Collins - 725 GONE
Isaiah Glasker - 667 - BACK
Tyler Batty - 652 - GONE
Tanner Wall - 558 - BACK
John Nelson - 490 - GONE
Blake Mangelson - 471 - GONE
Harrison Taggart - 426 - GONE
Isaiah Bagnah - 410 - GONE
Crew Wakley - 360 - GONE
Mory Bamba - 354 - BACK
Logan Lutui - 336 - BACK
Raider Damuni - 276 - BACK
Evan Johnson - 230 - BACK
John Taumoepeau - 224 - BACK
Joshuan Singh - 194 - GONE
Tommy Prassas - 188 - BACK
Aisea Moa - 142 - GONE
Faletau Satuala - 119 - BACK
Micah Harper - 104 - GONE
11 of 21 defensive players with over 100 snaps played last year are gone. Only 42.4% of the production by players with 100+ snaps on defense last year are coming back for 2025.
I don't even have to sit and stare at that list to discover why people are down on BYU. The Cougs are losing a ton of production on both sides of the ball.
But why doesn't it feel like it?
Let's look at the highest PFF grades on either side of the ball and maybe something will jump out for us.
OFFENSE (minimum 100 snaps played, PFF Grade 70+)
- LJ Martin - 79.7 - BACK
- Chase Roberts - 79.0 - BACK
- Sione Moa - 75.4 - BACK
- Jake Retzlaff - 74.7 - GONE
- Darius Lassiter - 73.3 - GONE
- Brayden Keim - 71.7 - GONE
- Parker Kingston - 70.2 - BACK
4 of the 7 offensive players with a grade of 70+ are back, including the top 3. That's good! That's a strong foundation that BYU's offense can build on, and a lot of reason for optimism.
DEFENSE (minimum 100 snaps played, PFF Grade 70+)
- Evan Johnson - 78.6 - BACK
- Tyler Batty - 78.5 - GONE
- Isaiah Glasker - 76.1 - BACK
- Harrison Taggart - 74.7 - GONE
- Jakob Robinson - 74.4 - GONE
- Aisea Moa - 73.7 - GONE
- Mory Bamba - 73.3 - BACK
- Crew Wakley - 72.1 - GONE
It's a little less hopeful on the defensive side of the ball. 3 of the top 8 in defensive grades are back.
It doesn't look bleak for BYU, not by a long shot. But it doesn't look rosy either. Right now, this BYU team looks like a big, fat, giant question mark. It's far too soon to dismiss this team as bad and primed for a regression, but it's probably too soon to assume this team is going to jump right back into conference contention.
This team has question marks. This team has unknowns. The beauty of question marks and unknowns is that nobody knows what their answers will be.
So, for now, we sit and stare at the paper until the answers jump out.