Two Truths and A Lie: Transfer Portal Edition

If I had a dollar for every time a college football coach has used the phrase 'Wild West' when discussing the transfer portal, I'd have more dollars than Warner Brothers made producing the movie Wild, Wild West. It's been said eleventy bajillion times over the last few years. Why? Because it's true. The transfer portal and the current state of roster management in college football are absolutely bonkers.

One of the under-discussed components of a bonkers environment is the conversation about that environment. When there aren't clear rules, enforcement protocols of those rules, verifiable sets of information, or any other real sources of truth, you can say just about anything you want to say.

If Jim Mora wants to say, "We do know who you are and will pursue all avenues to hold you accountable" he can.

If Jay Norvell wants to specifically call out schools and say, "I had every team in America try to take Troy Horton from us. From Texas A&M to Ole Miss, I mean, they've all been on him" he can. Nobody is going to stop him or be able to prove that he's right or wrong.

The unregulated nature of NIL and college athletics results in unmitigated claims and unchecked information floating around in the Cosmos. This is our college sports world, for better or worse.

What's true? What's not true? What's real? What's fake?

Today we play a game of Two Truths And A Lie... well, sort of. We will try to take some talking points and add some truth and see if we can identify lies. It's not Two Truths And A Lie at all but it was a really catchy title.

Coaches Are Out Here Tampering And Trying To Steal Players

Accuracy Scale: 33% Accurate

When the conversations about tampering start, it's almost always tied directly to coaches doing the dirty work. It's easy to envision some slimy offensive coordinator from the state of Georgia dressed up like The Hamburgler lurking around college campuses and finding players to talk to. But the reality is that it's a lot more complex.

In today's day and age, coaches aren't doing much at all. Collectives (the good ones and the bad ones) have taken over the recruiting scene and they get to control what happens. More often than not, when coaches do get involved, they get in the way.

Remember Matthew Sluka? It feels like a lifetime ago, but Sluka was the UNLV quarterback who transferred three games into the season due to unfulfilled NIL promises. If you don't remember the crux of that whole issue, it was UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion.

The Cliff's Notes for timeliness: Sluka had an agent. That agent claimed that Marion promised $100,000 would be paid to Sluka. Sluke never received the money. UNLV's collective said they made no such claim. There were no contracts in place, only alleged verbal handshake agreements. Sluka is back in the transfer portal. UNLV won a bunch of games without him.

That situation illustrates many of the problems when coaches get involved.

A) A coach - especially a coordinator - doesn't have any insight into the comings and goings of a collective and can't make promises.

B) The barriers to entry to become an NIL agent are virtually zero. As a result, important legal concepts like GET ALL AGREEMENTS IN WRITING get overlooked and everyone looks stupid.

C) When the media gets involved, any claim can be made and there isn't a way to verify the truth.

We have no idea if Marion made a promise for $100k to go to Sluka. He very well could have! He also could have said something about how Jayden Maiava made $100k as the UNLV quarterback last year and that's what Sluka could make in Las Vegas too. He could have said absolutely nothing at all and Sluka's agent needed a scapegoat to save his own hide.

We have no idea and there is no way to prove anything. Such is the unregulated world of college football right now.

That situation illustrates the nature of tampering and impermissible contact of today. Agents and collectives are involved. Players and coaches are the subjects. Parents are involved. High school trainers are involved. Siblings are involved. It's really, really complicated.

An agent might put out 'feelers' to their college football contacts, looking for a place for their client to get paid more money to play college football. Collective representatives (or even just the neighbor of the guy who volunteers at a Collective) might take that information and see what kind of money is there. A negotiation could happen between the agent and the Collective. In some cases, verbal agreements might even happen. All of this could take place without the player or the coaches even being aware.

There are some really good NIL agents out there who are completely invested in the success of their players. There are some really slimy NIL agents out there who are completely invested in lining their own pockets with money. Because there aren't any real rules about becoming an NIL agent, it's impossible to know what kind of person an agent is until you're in the thick of it.

Many (most?) NIL agents don't have law degrees and they don't have the qualifications that would be approved by the NFLPA to be a certified agent in the NFL. As such, their runway for revenue is finite. They can't bet on a five-star quarterback going to the NFL and having 20 years' worth of contracts and endorsement deals. They have 3-4 college years to make their buck. Their fees are 15-20%, not the standard 2-4% that an NFL agent takes. It is in the best interest of the agent to have their player enter the transfer portal every chance they get to get back to the negotiation table. They want big checks and, a lot of the time, they don't care what it means for the player.

High-dollar donors often have more money than brains. They want to see their favorite football team win a conference championship so badly that they are willing to pay millions of dollars a year to make it happen. That's nothing new - I mean, SMU did get the death penalty after all. But now, it's legal.

Slimy Agents + Desperate Boosters With More Money Than Brains = Everything You See In College Football Today.

Do coaches tamper? Of course, they do. They want to win and keep their paychecks happening too. It would be naive to suggest that there aren't coaches playing the game. But to every 'coach is tampering' claim, there are two slimy agents out there looking to make a buck off the back of their players.

So, why can't the NCAA do anything?

Because the courts have eviscerated their power.

Can a player know their actual market value without the ability to negotiate and find out what that value is? Not according to this court ruling. Remember when the Supreme Court called out the NCAA for conspiring to suppress wages?

There is no regulation. The rules that kind of exist can't be enforced. Even the Wild West had lawmen, the NCAA does not.

Some coaches are tampering. Agents are asking for their players to be tampered with. There are no rules and there is (somehow) less enforcement.

Information Is Pure And True Because Sources Say It

Accuracy Scale: 8% Accurate

It has never been a harder time to be a college football journalist, particularly one that covers recruiting. Let's just state some facts:

• Schools can't publicly talk about anything so there isn't any way to get a coach on record without a player signing a scholarship agreement.
• Recruits and players have agents and representation now, and as discussed, the motives of those agents and representatives is, erm... suspect.
• Schools across the country are limiting media access and protecting their brands from ever losing. Practices are limited. Press conferences are limited. Questions are avoided and SIDs are ending interviews.

• Information that is officially released from schools is carefully curated by PR teams. Information that is unofficially released from schools is carefully curated by PR teams.

Information is power and now that everyone has hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars on the line, information is harder than ever to verify.

Collectives, at least most of them, have finite funds. Schools, assuming the House Settlement is finalized, will have a salary cap. But the intricacies of those funds are protected and private. In the NFL, if a player signs a contract, it's known how much he signed for. Agents and teams get to operate from the same playbook in determining player value. In college, those numbers are not public and, as a result, things get crazy.

So, when a player transfers unexpectedly from Program A, it is in the absolute best financial interest of that program to create a narrative about the financial reality. Maybe the message of 'he wasn't worth that much' is what gets leaked. Maybe it's a message of 'so and so is overpaying' that gets spread. Maybe it's a 'Well, it was Program B For Blueblood that offered him a ton of money and we can't compete with that' that becomes the story.

If a school says anything to a journalist then that journalist has no other recourse or source of verification. It's impossible to know if you're a pawn or if you're being told the truth. The school will never comment publicly. There is no database of truth. There is nothing but the information you were told and it's up to you to decide what to do with it. That's not easy... because if you don't do the right thing, your information might dry up in the future.

Schools can toss out claims that another school doesn't pay their NIL promises. (More on that later.) Agents can claim that there are offers that are 3x higher than they actually are and there is no way to verify it.

It makes you miss the days when kids just faked commitments, ya know?

The NFL and other leagues have mandatory press conferences where media members can ask what they want. They have open practices. Their players have the ability to talk to anybody that they want and say anything - and I mean anything coughAaronRodgerscough - that they want. Contract terms have to be reported. Injury status is disclosed.

In college football, none of that exists. Everything is fluid, uncertain, and unverifiable. There is certainly truth that gets reported - and there are REALLY good reporters! But even the best reporters are limited by bad or limited information.

For fans, it's never been more important to think critically about information - especially information from your local beat writers. Your favorite school is probably not as good as the information would lead you to believe. Your least favorite school is probably not as bad as information would lead you to believe.

For reporters, it's infinitely more important to have that same kind of guarded eye and skepticism when you hear information. Everyone wants to use everyone else to peddle their narrative of choice. If the wrong narrative gets out, it could costs hundreds of thousands or millions in NIL money. So of course schools will want to use you.

BYU Isn't Paying NIL Deals Out

Accuracy Scale: You Be The Judge

Everything we just said about information is true. So even though I've repeatedly been told that any claim of fake NIL promises is patently false, let's not make any assumptions. Let's look at the evidence.

Tyler Batty came back this year.

Jakob Robinson came back this year.

LJ Martin came back this year.

Connor Pay came back this year.

These are players that could have gone pro or could have transferred. These are players that have firsthand experience of NIL dealing at BYU. And they all elected to come back for the 2024 season.

Let's keep looking.

Chase Roberts could have gone pro but announced he is coming back to BYU.

Keelan Marion was an All-American and hasn't entered the transfer portal.

LJ Martin is back.

Isaiah Glasker is back.

Jack Kelly is back.

Faletau Satuala was an Army All-American with a million school choices a year ago who played sparingly during his true freshman season and is still coming back.

Let's look at the players that have entered the portal and speculate as to why:

Crew Wakley - Not on scholarship and feels he's earned a starting role that Jay Hill hasn't given so far.

Jake Eichorn - Never played, has one year left.

Aisea Moa - Former four-star who played sparingly.

Sione Moa - Walk-on in a crowded room.

Micah Harper - Sixth-year senior had fallen out of the rotation.

Kody Epps - Sixth-year senior had fallen out of the rotation.

Miles Davis - Sixth-year senior had fallen out of the rotation.

Jackson Bowers - Former four-star who played sparingly.

David Latu - JUCO transfer who played sparingly.

Dallin Johnson - Has seen no game action.

Noah Lugo - Has seen no game action.

Dallin Havea - Has seen no game action.

Does that seem like a portal class of unfulfilled NIL promises?

Look, I've heard from reputable sources that certain school don't fulfill their NIL promises. Do I believe that? Not really. Because how on earth would anyone actually know? Everything is hearsay. I've got no reason to believe or not believe. The things I've been told are white noise.

What I can look at is evidence. It's circumstantial evidence that can't be verified as truth, to be sure, but I'm not trying to throw anyone in prison. I'm just trying to determine how much credence to give claims that BYU isn't fulfilling NIL promises.

And when I look at the list above? I've already given it more credence than it deserves.

I'm just a guy on a computer. I don't know anything. I'm not claiming to know anything. But I do have eyes that can see and they aren't seeing signs of problems here.