Return of the PAC

Well, well, well, we meet again. I'm a glutton for realignment talk - always have been, always will be. And last night at approximately 830PM PDT we got a bomb from Ross Dellenger that the top 4 brands of the MW were leaving for the PAC. This was quickly corroborated by everybody in the business: McMurphy, Vannini, Forde, Dodd, you name it.

But Why?

If you're wondering why these schools leaving the MW to join "another G6 league" - they're not. That's the point. They want to create separation and make a new table in the cafeteria that isn't quite the jocks and cheerleaders, but also not the theater kids (no offense to any thespians among us).

I can with 100% certainty guarantee you that they are not making this decision blindly and forking over a collective $111MM if they didn't know they were going to get more money than their current position.

They each will owe $17mm for exiting the MW and then the Pac must pay $43mm as a penalty of their scheduling agreement for this season (man that was expensive, but you gotta do what you gotta do I guess). If they didn't think they could improve upon the $4mm they get currently from the MW TV deal, then they would not be making this move.

Just Merge!

I think our nostalgia of things like the 1996 WAC Championship Game vs Wyoming and that pesky USU game clutter our mind a bit when our west-coast-centric fanbase that has a history with the MW views sthe status of the programs left.

We remember the Rocky Long New Mexico teams and think Bronco can make them respectable. The rest of the country things of New Mexico the same way you think of Louisiana Tech.

Congrats Wyoming, you're Tulsa.

USU wishes it had the history of ECU.

The reason they didn't merge is because after the 4 schools that are left, the remaining 8 programs in the MW are effectively worth nothing. They will have to renegotiate a TV deal that is likely going to be in the range of $1mm annually.

WOOF.

Who Next?

Jackson Moore, the writer for BarkBoard (247's Fresno State affiliate) first reported that these 4 schools were looking at the PAC back in December of 2023. Whether it was a shot in the dark, a logical conclusion, or solid info, who knows. But three days ago he reiterated it again on their board that it was going to happen but didn't know when.

He said it would be those 4, then target 2 from another league to get to 8 and avoid having to buy out teams that aren't worth it. Top targets would be Memphis and Tulane.

If it were me, here's what I would do:

1. Go for Memphis, Tulane and UTSA to get to 9 football members.
2. Get Gonzaga and St Mary's to come for other sports to get to 12 total members.
3. Wait until the ACC falls apart, then try to get Stanford, Cal and SMU to join you to go to 12 football members total.

If you can't get the American schools, then you will have to look at other MW schools, or maybe a Sun Belt or CUSA program:

• UNLV - Stop trying to make "They need the Vegas market happen!". They don't carry the market and never will. But if you're looking at the rest of the MW, they're the best that's let.
• Wyoming - Close to CSU. Will never be a power but has had good years. CFB sickos love them.
• Air Force - People like the academies, but in an NIL world this is tough. The other teams would prefer avoiding getting hit with cut blocks every play.
• Hawaii could be a football only option and may have a lower buyout given they're not a full MW member, but also woof. They're currently on their own TV deal and not part of the MW deal.
• SJSU, Nevada, New Mexico are all poverty programs.
• USU - lol.
• Liberty - They would 100% screw over their other sports and buy their way into this league as a football only member. CUSA travel is already terrible.
• NIU and Toledo - the most consistent MAC programs, but definitely a MASSIVE drop off. Not worth the extra travel and I would just opt for UNLV instead.
• Sun Belt - Texas State is good for the first time ever and is in Texas. Them and UTSA could be actual travel partners, but the rest of the league is probably too far away to make sense.

Financials

Okay, let's wrap this up with talking hard numbers. They clearly did this for money and playoff access.

The MW currently gets ~$4mm annually from it's TV deals for the 11 members. There's ~$45mm.

The American got $7mm per year starting in 2019 when they signed their deal. When they backfilled the 3 Big 12 teams with 6 schools from the American, they negotiated that the old schools would keep the $7mm and the new schools would get $2mm each to avoid dilution.

I have not seen this contract, but I would be shocked if there wasn't some clause about membership changes, and if Memphis and Tulane leave, you'd be left with less than half of the 11 schools that signed it. CBS Sports owns the primary rights to Navy football, but ESPN gets the Navy-Notre Dame games and one Navy game in the off years of that series as part of the AAC deal.

• Cincy, Central Florida, Houston are in the Big 12
• SMU is in the ACC
• UConn is in the Big East

Memphis and Tulane going to the rebuilt Pac would leave just ECU, Tulsa, Temple, and USF from the original 11 full members that signed it. Wichita State as a non-football member opposite Navy is also a factor here.

If there's a clause that allows ESPN to break this deal now prior to the 2031 expiration, that frees up another ~70mm.

Plus whatever CW is paying Oregon State and Wazzu (rumored to be roughly $10mm each this year - but let's just say it's $7.5mm to match the American and be conservative) - ~15mm

2pac + 11 MW (no Hawaii) + 12 AAC (no Navy or Army) = $130mm spread over 25 schools.

If you take 9 of these schools to make a new league, that is ~$14.5 per team, or $16 if you only go to 8.

Now, clearly they won't get 100% of that because somebody will throw the MW and American a CUSA/Sun Belt sized bone - max of roughly $1mm each.

Even if you very aggressively say $2mm each for the remaining 17 teams, that leaves over $10mm for these 9 in the Pac.

What's going to happen in my SWAG estimate: The new Pac gets $8-10mm a year, the playoff bid (assuming structure stays similar) 8/10 years in a decade and the MW and American fall to $1-$1.5mm annually in their payout and it saves ESPN money so they're happy to do it.